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Forex Commentaries

By Hans Nilsson*

Will USD/JPY Support Hold?

Hans Nilsson2010-06-30

The dollar traded mostly higher on Wednesday after Moody’s Investors Service Inc. said it may downgrade Spain’s Aaa credit rating. US economic data were mixed. ADP estimated US nonfarm private employment increased 13K in June, well below the consensus expected 60K, while the Chicago PMI showed US business activity expanded for nine straight months.

Dollar and Yen Rise on Renewed Recession Worries

Hans Nilsson2010-06-29

The dollar and yen surged on worries about the global economic recovery. The Conference Board Chinese leading economic index unexpectedly fell; Japanese unemployment rose; and US consumer confidence dropped for the first time in four months. The S&P 500 plunged 33.33 to 1041.24. Treasury two-year note yields fell to a record low; 10-year yields declined below 3%; and commodity prices plummeted. The USD/JPY dropped to the lowest level since the “flash-crash” May 6...

USD/CHF Bottoming?

Hans Nilsson2010-06-28

The dollar traded mostly higher on Monday. US personal income posted a third successive monthly gain in May and personal spending increased. The S&P 500 declined 2.19 to 1,074.57. The yen was down modestly. Japan’s month-on-month retail sales fell the most in five years. The euro dropped ahead of the expiration of the large-scale European Central Bank lending facility later this week.

Sterling Breaks Downtrend

Hans Nilsson2010-06-25

The dollar fell versus most major currencies on Friday ahead of the G-20 meeting this weekend. Q1 2010 US annualized GDP growth was revised down to 2.7%, while Q1 corporate profits were revised higher and June consumer sentiment climbed to the highest level since January 2008. The S&P 500 rose 3.07 to 1,076.76, supported by the lower dollar and reduced uncertainty following an agreement on a financial-regulation overhaul bill.

USD/JPY Likely to Decline Further

Hans Nilsson2010-06-24

The dollar traded mixed on Thursday following yesterday’s Fed downgrade of the US economic outlook. US May durable goods orders declined for the first time in six months and initial jobless claims decreased slightly more than expected. The dollar index reversed earlier losses after a successful test of the 85-area support. The S&P 500 fell 18.35 to 1,073.69.

Fed’s Cautious Comment Pressures Greenback

Hans Nilsson2010-06-23

The dollar pared earlier gains on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve turned more cautious on the US economy. The Federal Open Market Committee, as expected, maintained the fed funds target rate at a range of 0 to 0.25% and reiterated its pledge to keep the benchmark rate at a record low for an “extended period.” The Fed, however, warned that deteriorating financial conditions may slow US economic growth.

Will GBP/USD Penetrate Resistance?

Hans Nilsson2010-06-22

The dollar traded mostly higher ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee interest-rate announcement. The FOMC is expected to maintain the fed funds target rate at a range of 0 to 0.25%. We do not think the FOMC will signal any monetary policy tightening. The Globicus LEI is declining; thus, pointing to weakening US economic growth.

Dollar Finds Support, Pressuring Stocks

Hans Nilsson2010-06-21

The dollar reversed overnight losses against most major currencies on Monday. The People’s Bank of China announced it will end its 2-year dollar peg before a G-20 summit this week. Global stocks and commodity prices initially rose while interest rates dropped. Later the recovering dollar pressured the S&P 500, which declined 4.31 to 1,113.20 and commodities trimmed gains.

CHF Rises as SNB Drops Intervention

Hans Nilsson2010-06-17

The dollar, while rising against the Canadian dollar, fell versus other major currencies on Thursday. The dollar index declined for the sixth time in eight days to 85.68, approaching the important 85-area support. US economic figures were weak. Jobless claims increased, Philadelphia-area manufacturing growth slowed, and consumer-price inflation remains tame.

USD/CAD Develops Inverted H&S?

Hans Nilsson2010-06-16

The dollar was up modestly against its rivals on Wednesday. US economic figures were mixed with weakerthan- expected housing, stronger-than-anticipated industrial production and tame producer-price inflation. The S&P 500 declined 0.62 to 1,114.61. The euro pared overnight losses and hovered around the 1.23 handle. The European Central Bank said the European Bank stress will be published starting with Spain. The yen was down slightly.

Dollar Correction Supports Risky Assets

Hans Nilsson2010-06-15

The dollar fell against its counterparts on Tuesday. Modest US inflation and slowing economic growth indicate interest rates should stay low for the foreseeable future. US import prices declined for the first time in three months; US homebuilder confidence fell after the government tax credit ended; and New York manufacturing expanded for an 11th straight month.

Will EUR/USD Recovery Continue?

Hans Nilsson2010-06-14

• The dollar fell against most major currencies on Monday. Global recovery optimism rose after data showed eurozone April industrial production posted the largest year-on-year gain since records started in 1991. The yen reversed overnight losses. The S&P 500 reversed earlier gains and fell 1.97 to 1,089.63 after Moody’s Investors Service said it downgraded Greece’s government bond ratings by four levels to Ba1 from A3.

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*Expert Market Commentaries, charts and information are provided by Hans Nilsson of Globicus International, Inc., a registered third party CTA, are intended for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please contact a registered trading advisor if you have any questions.

This report is intended solely for distribution to customers of Capital Market Services, L.L.C. Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, L.L.C. with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Capital Market Services, L.L.C. accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of Globicus International, Inc.