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Forex Commentaries

By Hans Nilsson*

GBP/USD Will Fall Further

Hans Nilsson2010-08-31

The dollar was higher against the pound on Tuesday but lower versus the yen and Swiss franc. The Federal Open Market Committee August 10 meeting minutes, released today, showed that while some Fed officials were concerned the economy was weakening, there was no plan to resume large asset buys and the Fed’s decision to reinvest the proceeds of mortgage-backed securities into Treasuries earlier this month was a signal of steady monetary policy.

Dollar Index May Rally to 85

Hans Nilsson2010-08-30

The dollar traded lower versus the yen on Monday but higher against other major currencies on continued global recovery concerns. US consumer spending accelerated in July but income growth was less than expected, indicating the economic recovery is fragile. Optimism among Texas manufactures dropped to the lowest level since March 2009. The S&P 500 fell 15.67 to 1,048.92, reversing Friday’s gains.

Yen Falls as Risk Aversion Eases

Hans Nilsson2010-08-27

The dollar traded mixed on Friday, higher against the yen but lower versus the commodity currencies as risk appetite rose. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed is prepared to provide additional unconventional stimulus measures if needed. US GDP growth slowed less than expected in Q2 2010. The S&P 500 rose 17.37 to 1,064.59. The EUR/USD was up modestly. Germany’s consumer-price inflation eased in August. The GBP/USD edged lower.

EUR/USD Breaks Downtrend

Hans Nilsson2010-08-26

The dollar traded lower versus most of its rivals on Thursday. US initial jobless claims fell for the first week in four. The US government concluded another successful series of auctions, selling $102 billion of two-, five- and seven-year notes this week at record-low yields. The S&P 500 declined 8.11 to 1,047.22. The USD/JPY was down slightly.

Dollar Index Consolidates Gains ahead of Bernanke’s Talk

Hans Nilsson2010-08-25

The dollar was higher against the yen on Wednesday but lower versus other major currencies. Further signs of slowing US economic growth pressured the greenback. US durable goods orders rose less than anticipated in July and new home sales dropped to the weakest level on record, increasing the risk of a double-dip recession. The S&P 500 gained 3.46 to 1,055.33, erasing early declines. The USD/JPY recovered from yesterday’s 15-year low. Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said: “We have to take appropriate action when necessary....My basic understanding is that movements have been one-sided.”

Global Economic Worries Boost Yen to 15-Year High

Hans Nilsson2010-08-24

Concern over slowing global economic growth pressured the dollar versus the yen on Tuesday while boosting the greenback against other major currencies. US treasuries rallied, commodity prices fell and stock prices plunged. A record drop in July US existing-home sales added to investor pessimism and pared the dollar’s gain.

EUR/USD Will Drop to 1.25

Hans Nilsson2010-08-23

The dollar advanced against most of its counterparts on Monday. The S&P 500 declined 4.33 to 1,067.36 as worries about US economic growth overshadowed economic optimism. The USD/JPY fell and approached recent lows. The yen gained after Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said currency intervention was not discussed between Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa in their telephone conference today.

USD/CAD Rises as Canadian Inflation Eases

Hans Nilsson2010-08-20

The dollar rose for a second day on Friday. The strengthening dollar is essentially a monetary-policy tightening, increasing the risk of a double-dip US recession and deflationary pressures. The S&P 500 fell 3.94 to 1,071.69, registering a second straight weekly fall. The USD/JPY gained modestly today but edged down for the week. The EUR/USD fell and broke its 2-month uptrend, indicating further declines. European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber stated that euro-area interest rates are still appropriate and the ECB should not withdraw its emergency measures this year...

Low Yielding Currencies Gain on Weak US Data

Hans Nilsson2010-08-19

• The dollar gained against most of its rivals on Thursday as risk aversion increased on concern US economic growth is faltering. US initial jobless claims in the week ending August 14 climbed to a 9-month high and the August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index turned negative for the first time since July 2009. Two-year bond yields touched a record low and commodity prices declined. The S&P 500 plunged 18.53 to 1,075.63. The low yielding yen and Swiss franc rose but pared gains in the New York session...

Cable at Critical Support

Hans Nilsson2010-08-18

The dollar traded mixed on Wednesday, higher against the euro but lower versus the yen. The S&P 500 gained 1.62 to 1,094.16. The yen was up modestly. There were reports of Japanese exporters purchasing the currency. The euro fell for the first day in three. The Canadian dollar rose for a second day after...

Dollar and Yen Fall as Growth Worries Ease

Hans Nilsson2010-08-17

The dollar and yen fell on Tuesday as investors sought riskier assets. July US economic data were mixed. Producer prices rose for the first time since March and industrial production grew for the fourth time in five months, but building permits fell to the lowest level since May 2009. The S&P 500 gained 13.16 to 1,092.54. The USD/JPY advanced today, supported by speculation that the Bank of Japan will intervene if the yen rises further. The EUR/USD rose after Spanish and Irish borrowing costs declined following successful bond auctions for the highly indebted countries.

USD/JPY Falls as Japanese Economy Stalls

Hans Nilsson2010-08-16

Down versus most of its counterparts on Monday, the dollar was pressured after Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the People’s Bank of China said China is diversifying its foreign-exchange reserves and buying more euro and yen. Economic data showed further signs of weakening global economic growth. The Japanese economy barely grew in Q2 2010; August US homebuilder confidence slumped to the lowest level since March 2009; and New York manufacturing new orders contracted this month after expanding for 13 straight months.

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*Expert Market Commentaries, charts and information are provided by Hans Nilsson of Globicus International, Inc., a registered third party CTA, are intended for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please contact a registered trading advisor if you have any questions.

This report is intended solely for distribution to customers of Capital Market Services, L.L.C. Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, L.L.C. with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Capital Market Services, L.L.C. accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of Globicus International, Inc.