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Forex Commentaries

By Hans Nilsson*

AUD/USD Testing Long-term Uptrend

Hans Nilsson2009-11-30

Following last week’s strong volatility, the dollar traded modestly lower on Monday as concerns eased about Dubai’s debt problem after the central bank of the United Arab Emirates pledged to provide emergency liquidity to the region’s banks.

Greenback Broke Important Support

Hans Nilsson2009-11-25

The dollar broke several important technical levels as it plunged on Wednesday. Investors are selling the dollar and buying risky assets as they see little risk of higher US rates or any attempt by the Federal Reserve to strengthen the dollar as long as the dollar decline is “orderly” as the Fed described.

USD/JPY Forming Double Bottom

Hans Nilsson2009-11-24

The dollar traded mixed on Tuesday, lower against the yen but higher versus the commodity currencies. The Federal Open Market Committee upgraded its forecasts for US economic growth but predicted a soft recovery would keep inflation muted, according to the November 3-4 Fed minutes released today.

EUR/USD at Crossroad

Hans Nilsson2009-11-23

The dollar fell versus most major currencies as risk sentiment improved on dovish Fed comments and stronger-than-expected US existing-home sales. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the Fed should retain the flexibility to respond to any weakening in the economy by extending beyond March its authority to buy mortgage-backed securities and agency bonds.

Greenback Gains as Equities Consolidate

Hans Nilsson2009-11-20

The dollar ended the week higher against most major currencies as risk aversion pressured risky assets. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet stated that the ECB will withdraw emergency cash gradually and tighten the standards under which it accepts newly issued asset-backed securities as collateral from banks for its refinancing tenders from March 1, 2010 and from March 1, 2011 the tighter standard will apply to all ABS.

Stocks and Currencies at Crossroad

Hans Nilsson2009-11-19

The dollar and yen advanced as risk aversion increased on Thursday. The overbought stock and commodity markets fell as investors unwound some carry trades. The Conference Board US leading economic indicators index rose less than expected; still, indicating a robust economic recovery.

Sterling Falls on BOE Minutes

Hans Nilsson2009-11-18

The dollar traded mixed on Wednesday. The euro rose on speculation US interest rates will stay low even longer than earlier thought. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stated that if history is any guide, the FOMC would not start raising rates until early 2012.

USD/CHF at Crossroad

Hans Nilsson2009-11-17

The dollar rose on Tuesday as risk sentiment dropped. Investors worried about the strength of the global economic recovery. The World Bank said the global recovery is fragile and government should not reduce fiscal stimulus yet.

Dollar Falls as Stimulus Continues

Hans Nilsson2009-11-16

The dollar fell and stocks gained on Monday as risk sentiment improved. APEC leaders pledged to maintain economic stimulus and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said easy monetary policy will be maintained for the foreseeable future.

Dollar Index at Support

Hans Nilsson2009-11-13

The dollar fell on Friday as risk sentiment and US stocks rose. US trade deficit widened more than anticipated on strong import growth and US consumer confidence unexpectedly fell. The S&P 500 rose 6.24 to 1,093.48. The yen was supported by yuan revaluation speculation.

AUD/USD Fails to Penetrate Resistance

Hans Nilsson2009-11-12

The dollar advanced on Thursday as risk aversion rose. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geither said the US wants a strong dollar. China’s Prime Minister Wen Jiabao warned the global economic recovery will be uneven.

EUR/USD at Important Resistance

Hans Nilsson2009-11-10

The dollar traded mixed on Tuesday as risk-prone currencies consolidated gains. The S&P 500 was little changed, losing just 0.07 points to 1,093.01. The dollar index was also little changed, hovering around the 75- handle support. The yen rose modestly.

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*Expert Market Commentaries, charts and information are provided by Hans Nilsson of Globicus International, Inc., a registered third party CTA, are intended for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading OTC Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please contact a registered trading advisor if you have any questions.

This report is intended solely for distribution to customers of Capital Market Services, L.L.C. Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, L.L.C. with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Capital Market Services, L.L.C. accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of Globicus International, Inc.